by Orinjamba on April 14, 2018 at 1:30pm

It’s been roughly six months since this slow train wreck of a government has been in office so I thought it would be a good time to review how things have been going so far from my perspective. I’m basing my opinions predominantly on how things have been progressing in the house.

As expected the overall theme could perhaps be best summed up by the image of the traditionally Kiwi experience of seeing two glowing amber eyes in the middle of the road when heading around a lazy bend at 85 during the small hours. It’s becoming increasingly obvious that Labour had no real expectations of winning the last general election and when the dust finally did settle were found staring into the oncoming headlights of a term in office. Perhaps they spent too much time and energy fossicking around for a decent leader during their time in opposition and not enough on policy development. It’s very easy to have a broad strategic platform of ideas to work from but quite something else putting together the means of achieving desired outcomes.

The election bribe of first-year free tertiary tuition is looking more and more dumb by the day. The fact this was not better targeted at specific streams of learning and training is monumentally stupid and wasteful. It may potentially provide some opportunities for people who wouldn’t otherwise have been able to access higher levels of education but I think there are smarter and better ways of achieving this. Time will tell. As for the closing of charter schools to mollify a mean spirited union void of any honour or passion? Don’t even get me started.

Another aspect which has been interesting to watch is the level of rampant racism being displayed, particularly by the Green Party. It was quite revealing listening to Golriz in the house a few weeks back during the submission process discussing the Pacer Plus Trade proposal. The Greens are opposed to such a deal as they see it as just another means towards stripping poorer nations of their assets and resources. Following her reasoning, Willie Jackson was next to speak and in so many words alluded to the patronising way ‘brown’ people are often referred to as if they had no brains to speak of and should be molly coddled as if they were children. I’ve always appreciated Willie’s perspective and while our politics are somewhat diverse he has always struck me as being someone with not only passion but also an enormous degree of street smarts and humility.

As for Marama Davidson’s upgrade to co leader all I can say is that it’s no real surprise. To be honest I’m struggling to understand why they even bothered having an election in the first place. She is obviously someone who believes passionately about the most disadvantaged however doesn’t appear to understand that capitalism is the best system for not only bringing people out of poverty but also raising living standards across the board in general.

But what about our new Prime Minister? Well, I’m sure many will disagree but I for one think she’s been handling herself pretty well really, especially considering the number of disparate personalities she’s been given to manage. I think the Youth Camp scandal pretty much sums up the level of idiots who currently populate Labour. A couple of days ago I wondered what the results would be of an I.Q. test for all of our current parliamentarians. Perhaps it’s better not to know though. In short, I believe Jacinda is coping remarkably well in the house. I find her politics quite tiresome and painful at the best of times but I respect her as a politician. Her confidence and aggressiveness in the House is really something to behold. Mind you I suspect she does get quite a bit of support from the gentleman sitting to her immediate left.

My prediction is that she WILL return after a brief break. There are two reasons for this. Firstly, she simply has no choice. The weight of expectation from people who believe a woman should be able to have a family AND a career is simply too much for Ms Ardern to ignore altogether. The second reason is that, like her or loathe her, Jacinda is passionate and genuinely believes in what she is doing.

Across the House it’s been a little painful to see the implosion of National, especially considering they won more votes than any other party. It would have been a very different story if the Maori Party had been able to hold on to even one of their seats, a fact which has been noticeably forgotten on both the left and the right. It’ll be interesting to see how things pan out in the next election, especially if people such as Lance O’Sullivan and Tariana Turia lend some back bone and renewed mana to the centre-right, something I am predicting will happen in no small degree.

As for Simon Bridges, I think he needs to take some fashion advice from Winston. His suits are extremely bright and seem to be getting more shiny and obnoxious as the year progresses. He appears to be morphing day by day into the sort of cartoon cliché Mafia Don you’d expect to see in a show like the Sopranos. It will be interesting to see how long he lasts before being ‘taken care of’. His seeming inability to couch questions properly in the house and follow the speaker’s directives tends to disrupt the opposition’s momentum and I’m not sure how long it’s going to take him to understand irony and develop ways of avoiding it.

Judith Collins, on the other hand, has been serene and exemplary in her manner. Her no-nonsense and direct approach has been in stark contrast to her leaders and when she gets her gloves off during general debate time we see glimpses of a future Prime Minister in waiting.

Trevor Mallard still hasn’t answered my email inquiry about removing all references of Jesus from the opening prayer to parliament. It just strikes me as being a bit weird and over the top really. I mean, it’s like having a kennel with no dog in it. I sent him a follow-up email this week but don’t expect any reply.

So out of ten what would I give this crowd so far? Well, I give them a solid four and the only reason they rate that high is the degree of stability and certainty Peters provides. If the old Silver Fox wasn’t there then we’d really be in trouble. A bit like a one-legged man, in an arse kicking contest.

PS:

This article was written before government’s announcement of an end to off-shore Oil and Gas exploration.

Perhaps the Labour Party have given up all hope of ever winning the New Plymouth electorate again. Unless I’m very much mistaken the last time they held this seat was back in 2005 with Harry Duynhoven.

This is a real nasty shock for all those families who rely on this industry for their bread and butter. Particularly those family and whanau just starting out with babies on the way.

I’m imagining that our Prime Minister won’t be visiting the Naki for any photo ops in the near future.

As for New Zealand First’s future? Well, that could be even bleaker.

by Cameron Slater on March 29, 2018 at 9:00am

Rodney Hide wants Jacinda Ardern to put her money where her mouth is on fossil fuels in his latest column for NBR:

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says the world has moved on from fossil fuels. It’s a nice line but it’s wrong. The world is burning more oil, gas and coal than ever before.

Fossil fuel consumption has rocketed up 57% since the 1992 Earth Summit when the “world” set the goal of stabilising greenhouse gas emissions. Despite all the jamborees, communiques, policies and air miles since, the world has not moved on. Far from it.

President Barack Obama declared in 2008 that future generations would look back on his nomination as “the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.”

Fast forward 10 years and he’s still – as we know – helicoptering to play golf. Flowery green rhetoric always marches hand-in-hand with great dollops of hypocrisy.

True to pattern, Ms Ardern has told Greenpeace activists she is “working hard” on ending oil and gas exploration. I don’t know what “working hard” could possibly entail. It’s easy for a government to ban exploration. It could be done in a day. It would be extraordinarily dumb and very costly but it would not be hard.

The “hard work” line is just political flimflam.

But then so is banning exploration. It’s the idea that somehow if New Zealand stopped looking for oil and gas, New Zealand would stop using oil and gas. It doesn’t follow. Oil and gas are traded around the world.

Rodney is right. It is just flim-flam. Our Prime Minister has plenty more flimflam statements she can trot out too. Her comments are just virtue signalling when you look at the facts like Rodney has:

New Zealand’s production is a drop in the bucket. In BP’s statistical review, New Zealand’s gas production is lumped in with “Other Asia Pacific.”

The more sensible approach would be to figure out how to get by without using oil and gas and so eliminate the need for exploration. Now that would be hard work. And to ban the use of oil and gas while the country is heavily dependent on both would plunge New Zealand into a new dark age.

And that’s where Ms Ardern’s thinking falls apart. She appears to be the hippie in the smoky bus with a “ban drilling” bumper sticker. Except she’s not. She’s the prime minister.

The hippie’s hypocrisy is amusing. The prime minister’s is dangerous.

It makes for “bumper sticker” government, without understanding or thought of consequence.

Bumper-sticker slogans is all Jacinda Ardern has got; it is all she has ever had. Rodney calls her out, challenging her to live her own rhetoric:

Instead of musing about a post-fossil fuel world, Ms Ardern should live it. So should the signatories to the Greenpeace petition calling for the end of oil and gas exploration. Anything less is dishonest politics.

Prime Minister Ardern and her partner have a huge carbon footprint by the nature of their work and lifestyle. Her work to ban exploration would have sting if she first showed by example how it’s possible to “move on” from fossil fuels.

Even better, she should get the “whole-of” government to move on from fossil fuels. It would be wonderful. That would be instant small and limited government. We would be left free to live our lives and to prosper with precious fossil fuels reserved for fun and production and no longer wasted on talking heads and oppressive bureaucracy.

Jacinda Ardern can’t forgo her fossil fuel use. How else would she be able to jet back to Auckland and rush home in a crown limousine to keep the dog on the porch?

-NBR

by Cameron Slater on March 26, 2018 at 9:30am

John Armstrong has written what may well be one of his best columns. It shows what he is capable of when not taking dictation from Bill English:

Jacinda Ardern sold herself to the voting public last year as a politician who was as fresh and pure as driven snow.

During the past couple of weeks, her prime ministership has looked about as fresh and pure as mud-caked slush.

She has been deluged with unwanted distractions which have dominated the headlines and made it commensurately difficult to talk about the things she would prefer to have highlighted by the media.

Dealing with such an unrelenting litany of political mishaps goes with the territory of prime minister, however.

All of a sudden Wonder Woman is looking like just another struggling premier side-tracked by side shows.

Brand Jacinda would seem to be metamorphosing into Calamity Jacinda.

Ouch, that’s brutal. It’s also true as Jacinda Ardern is ill-equipped to deal with anything other than soft, fluffy headlines and slogans.

For the first time since her seemingly effortless ascension to the country’s top job just five short months ago, she has appeared flustered, if not rattled.

And snarly and nasty to boot.

Ardern’s difficulties have left many wondering whether they are a sign that the wheels are already falling off her Heath Robinson-like contraption of a government.

Her three-party combo is far more complex and potentially much more volatile than any other constructed since the introduction of MMP.

Labour needs no reminding of the Greens’ capacity to be thankless thorns in its side.

Add the in-your-face bolshiness of New Zealand First to the mix and you have a recipe for mayhem.

Isn’t it wonderful? I think it is. Blogging has never been easier.

With regard to the latter party, Ardern can expect more friction of the kind generated this week by Shane Jones in his full-on offensive against Air New Zealand.

In one stroke, he made it absolutely clear that such constitutional niceties as collective Cabinet responsibility, which constrains ministers from going solo in speaking out, now count for very little.

No politician lost votes pinging the national carrier. There are correspondingly no votes gained in defending the airline.

But the latter was the invidious position into which Ardern was thrust courtesy of the deliberately over-the-top call by the Minister for Regional Economic Development for heads to roll on the board of Air New Zealand.

Jones got the media attention he was seeking. But his undermining of Ardern did nothing for public confidence in the stability of the Government overall.

Well might she feel let down by Jones. Well may she feel let down by Jones’ leader who backed him to the hilt.

Jacinda thinks she is in charge, but anyone closely connected to the government knows that it is really Winston Peters calling the shots.

It is high time Winston Peters worked out that being Deputy Prime Minister—a post which enjoys a $37,000 margin on top of the standard $290,000 salary paid to Cabinet ministers—requires him to act in the Government’s wider interest rather than solely New Zealand First’s self-interest.

Bwahahaha. Winston Peters works in the best interests of Winston Peters. He always has and always will.

The list of those who have let Ardern down in past weeks is not confined to Peters’ party, however

Ardern was badly let down by Andrew Kirton, Labour’s general secretary, and Nigel Howarth, the party’s president, following the shocking revelations of under-age drinking and allegations of sexual assault at a Young Labour-organised summer camp.In particular, Howarth took so long to front in public that you could be excused thinking he was auditioning for the role of the Invisible Man.

Well might Ardern wish that Peters was the Invisible Man.

He further badly let her down in his other role as Foreign Minister.

She bent over backwards to stem the criticism rightly heaped upon him for his woeful handling of New Zealand’s response to the attempted murder of the former Russian spy Sergei Skripal.

Peters veered close to provoking a foreign policy crisis through point-blank refusal to use the words “assassination”, “nerve agent”, “Russia” and “responsible” in the same sentence.

The Prime Minister has also been badly let down by the Greens, who have instantly revived their flagging reputation for adopting the weird and the whacky by announcing they would be gifting their allotment of parliamentary questions to the Opposition.

James Shaw was the first to agree the idea sounded crazy. Not only does it sound crazy. It is crazy. It is also little short of treachery.

Senior Labour people I’ve spoken to say that they have privately declared war on the Greens. They never liked them in the first place and they will now try to do to the Greens what National did to ACT.

It seems to have escaped the Greens that their gesture—ostensibly made in the interests of improving ministerial accountability—is a breach of the spirit, if not the wording of their co-operation agreement with Labour.

If things are going to fall apart, however, it will likely be because of clashes over policy matters.

One such battle is already looming. The Greens’ parliamentary wing now looks likely to yield to pressure from the wider party membership to block legislation instigated by Peters which would see MPs indulging in party-hopping chucked out of Parliament.

That could be entertaining.

Peters is obsessed with getting an anti-waka jumping law back on the statute books after a previous such measure expired more than a decade ago. There is little or no room for compromise.

We are thus entering unchartered waters. When it comes to steering into the rocks, there are going to be many false alarms, however.

Should the governing arrangement collapse, the party deemed as responsible for bringing the House down can guarantee it will be punished heavily by voters.

One thing pundits haven’t realised is that if the government collapses it doesn’t necessarily require an election. Both the Greens and NZ First could go cut a deal with National and the confidence in the house would change immediately, as would the government, all without an election. At the moment that could be easily triggered given the parlous state of Labour ministers and their hapless performances.

It could prove to be fatal. The Greens and New Zealand First are currently registering less than 7 per cent support in opinion polls. Neither party holds an electorate seat which would void the 5 per cent threshold.

The Greens are hogtied; New Zealand First slightly less so. Were the current Government to collapse, Peters could approach National and try to form an alternative administration.

He would have little bargaining power.

Moreover, National might prefer to take advantage of the chaos to try to convince voters that a stand-alone National majority government was the best option in ensuring the restoration of political stability.

That would be extremely risky…trying to go alone. That was Bill English’s plan and we all know how that ended up. John Key never managed it. Simon Bridges is no John Key.

The danger lies in the parties accidentally ending up in circumstances which make it impossible for them to back down or back off over some issue where they are in serious disagreement.

Avoiding such a scenario requires discipline. That commodity would seem to be in increasingly short supply, however.

Ardern needs to read the Riot Act to Peters and Shaw. She also needs to take heed of it herself.

She won’t do that. She is just like John Key but without the ruthlessness. She wants to be popular and liked. Being nasty doesn’t become her and she can’t cope with the pressure of doing that.

She let herself down while clearing up the mess created by Peters’ botched handling of the Russia problem. And badly so.

Her claim this week that New Zealand had been ahead of the international pack in declaring Moscow was behind the attempted murder of Skripal was as outrageous as it was audacious as it was patently incorrect.

She made reference to a statement issued under Peters’ name which condemned the “totally repugnant” use of chemical weapons as a tool for assassination.

Peters’ statement, however, offered not a word on whether responsibility for the assassination attempt could or should be sheeted home to Moscow.

In marked contrast, Britain’s other allies showed no hesitation in laying the blame for the nerve agent attack squarely at Russia’s door.

It took a couple more days for New Zealand to fall into line and declare via a joint statement issued under Ardern’s and Peters’ names that “Russia has serious questions to answer”.

No-one who has kept tabs on how events unfolded will be fooled by the Prime Minister’s blatant and shameless attempt to rewrite history. She will get away with it on this occasion. The conduct of foreign policy is not something the public cares that much about.

She is a perfect example of spin over substance – something I have been saying about her since 2008 when I had lunch with her in Morrinsville.

Ardern would be well-advised not to make a habit of playing fast and loose with the facts, however. Her patter might be silky smooth. But she cannot expect to talk her way out of every predicament that she finds herself enmeshed in.

Sooner than later, she will be caught out.

Voters have invested much hope in her being a politician who can be trusted absolutely. To make fools of those who have shown such faith in her would be to invite a backlash truly terrible in its scale and vitriol.

It is worse for Ardern and she sanctimoniously lectured Bill English during the election campaign about never telling lies. That lie has been well and truly outed in recent weeks

by Cameron Slater on March 24, 2018 at 9:00am

Jacinda Ardern’s letter to Donald Trump asking to exclude New Zealand from his new steel and aluminium tariffs looks to have been ignored.

U.S. President Donald Trump has temporarily excluded six countries, including Canada and Mexico, and European Union states from higher U.S. import duties on steel and aluminum meant to come into effect on Friday.

In a presidential proclamation published late on Thursday, Trump said he would suspend tariffs for Argentina, Australia, Brazil, South Korea, Canada, Mexico and the European Union, the U.S.’s biggest trading partner, until May 1, 2018 as discussions continue.

I guess mocking Trump for being orange has backfired on little Cindy.

After May 1, Trump would decide whether to permanently exempt the countries based on the status of talks, the White House said in a statement.

The United States was set to begin imposing the higher import duties of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum, mainly aimed at curbing imports from China, as of 12:01 a.m. EST on Friday.

“I have determined that the necessary and appropriate means to address the threat to the national security posed by imports from steel articles from these countries is to continue these discussions and to exempt steel articles imports from these countries from the tariff, at least at this time,” according to Trump’s proclamation released by the White House.

It said countries not on the list could discuss with Washington ways to address U.S. national security concerns caused by imports of steel from that country.

Earlier, German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that the EU would respond firmly if the United States did not exempt European steel and aluminum.

The European Commission had proposed that if U.S. tariffs were applied the bloc would challenge them at the World Trade Organization.

Canada and Mexico are in the midst of renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement with the United States. Trump had said Canada and Mexico would only be excluded after the successful renegotiation of NAFTA.

Trump said South Korea was listed because of its important security relationship with the United States, “including our shared commitment to eliminating the North Korean nuclear threat.”

South Korean President Moon Jae-in is pushing for a three-way leaders’ summit with North Korea and the United States aimed at ending the nuclear threat on the Korean peninsula. Trump has said he is willing to participate in the meeting although no date or location has been set.

I’m not sure that there is anything Labour can do or say that will help right now. They will have to reply on Tim Groser in Washington to smooze the way. All that mocking of him and his Trump party will have to be shelved.