Newshub’s latest poll has the National party well in front with Labour 10 points behind.
The real bad news for the left though is that the Greens are below 5% and possibly out of parliament.
The latest Newshub-Reid research poll* shows that National has climbed to 47.3% – an increase of 4% from just over one week ago**. Meanwhile, Labour has shown its first decrease since Jacinda Ardern took over as party leader to sit on 37.8% – a decline of 1.6%.
The results show a potentially devastating turn of events for the Greens as they drop to 4.9% – a further decrease of 1.2% from the last Newshub-Reid research poll. On that result the Greens would miss out on the five per cent threshold and not make it into Parliament. NZ First is also showing a small decline but is currently tracking ahead of the Greens on 6%.
When it comes to preferred Prime Minister, both party leaders are showing an increase but it appears that the leaders’ debates have swung in favour of Bill English. English (33.1%) is recording a 3% increase, and Ardern (31.7%) is showing a 1.8% increase. Winston Peters meanwhile, is down on previous poll results at 6%.
Newshub political editor Patrick Gower said: “These results are dramatic and devastating. A dramatic rise for National to the top of the table, and devastating for the Greens who would be kicked out of Parliament. The overall outlook in the election is still volatile. The vote is extremely volatile.”
Three’s #Decision17 live election coverage will be available on Three and ThreeNOW from 7.00PM, 23rd September. RadioLIVE will also be covering the results throughout the evening with Mark Sainsbury joined in studio by Chris Trotter as well as a line-up of commentators on rotation throughout the night.
Duncan Garner will be hosting the special, joined by Patrick Gower and The Nation host, Lisa Owen.
Garner said: “The polls are as volatile and as unpredictable as the campaign itself. One poll says Labour, the next says National. It’s the most interesting election in decades. No one can call it. Both English and Ardern have campaigned well, but both sides have issues that they’re desperate to either keep quiet or expose in this intense arm wrestle to the end.”
“The minor parties are collapsing and fighting for their very existence. And that, I sense, means some voters are still making up their minds.”
The feedback I am getting is that the polls are harder to pick than a broken nose. They are all over the place.
This poll is but one data point, but going into the last 10 days it provides a boost for National.
Traditionally the two major parties and the Greens slide away in the last two weeks. NZ First rises.
National’s insurance policy is now NZ First, if they slide below a level where they can govern alone.
Labour though is hurting and that can be sheeted home to the lack of detail and the happy face campaign that lacks any substance.
Labour announced their light rail plans to the adoring lefty media luvvies.
They were instantly proclaimed geniuses for proposing light rail down the middle of one of Auckland’ busiest thoroughfares.
Now there is a snag…Labour actually has a $6 billion hole in their funding plans for the rail…and actually want Auckland Council to pay for it, not the government.
Labour is unclear how it will fund a $5 billion plan for modern trams in Auckland, but says Auckland Council will shoulder a “significant” share of the cost.
Labour’s Auckland Issues spokesman Phil Twyford today said he did not know how the costs will be shared between the Government and Auckland Council, except to say council will not pay the majority.
Twyford also did not know whether modern trams, also known as light rail, will sit on the Government or Auckland Council’s balance sheet.
How wonderful. Labour is making spending promises with ratepayer cash. If Labour can’t get simple things like this right then they do not deserve to sit on the treasury benches.
In her first public appearance as Labour leader, Jacinda Ardern promised fast modern trams along two routes from the CBD to the airport and West Auckland within 10 years at a cost of up to $5b. This would be followed by trams to the North Shore.
Labour has promised to fund its Auckland Transport package by a combination of increased expenditure, cancelling or scaling back existing transport projects like the $1.8b east-west road through the city’s industrial belt and giving Auckland Council the ability to set a regional petrol tax.
Twyford said Labour would change the mix and priorities of projects in the city’s 10-year transport plan and spend an extra $2.1b. The overall plan would cost $15b, including the light rail projects to the airport and West Auckland, and had a $6b funding gap, he said.
Twyford said Labour was committed to funding the full $15b programme, but could not say how much Auckland Council would pay towards trams.
“Auckland Council is going to end up contributing a significant amount of that, but probably the smaller amount, not the majority,” said Twyford.
Dishonest as the day is long is Phil Twyford. Labour are hoodwinking people with their own money…that they haven’t stolen yet.
Phil Goff is singing from the same song sheet, wanting to rape ratepayers pockets even more.
It is unclear how the council, which carries the $3.4b City Rail Link on its balance sheet, could absorb another $5b for trams when the council is right up against its debt ceiling, which, if breached could lead to a credit rating downgrade and drive up borrowing costs.
Labour has said a regional fuel tax of 10 cents a litre would raise $160m a year for Auckland Council. The Herald estimates a 10c-a-litre tax would raise $100m a year.
Auckland Mayor Phil Goff said Auckland recognises that we need to have skin in the game.
“We’re prepared to share in the costs of investing in transport infrastructure in our city, but we need government to help us expand the base from which we generate revenue to pay for it,” he said.
Code words for extra taxes.
Goff, the former Labour MP who campaigned during the mayoralty for light rail, said trams to the airport is a priority and the latest ATAP update increases by $700m to $1.2b the money set aside for trams or rapid buses on the isthmus and to the airport.
“I welcome announcements from both parties that central government will contribute a significant share towards Auckland’s transport investment needs.
“I favour road pricing mechanisms rather than general rates increases. That would include options of congestion charging, tolling or a fuel tax to help generate the levels of funding required for transport infrastructure investment in Auckland. We’re also exploring the use of targeted rates and value uplift (higher rates for businesses that benefit from projects).
So, Labour and Phil Goff want to charge road users to fund public transport. How does get stuffed sound.
None of this will end well, costing far more than is promised and delivering far less.
Such is the inherent dishonesty of Labour politicians.
With the Greens polling too low to enter Parliament at all, Labour would be unable to form a coalition government.
In a 121-seat Parliament, National would have 61 seats – a majority. They could form a buffering coalition agreement with ACT, who would bring one seat and/or the Māori Party, who would bring two.
National’s gain in the polls coincides with the week Finance Spokesperson Steven Joyce claimed Labour had an $11.7 billion hole in its fiscal plan. It’s a claim widely debunked by economists, with National unable to find an economist to back it up.
The poll will be devastating for the Green Party, which continues its downward trend, down to 4.9 percent.
That’s just below the 5 percent threshold required for the Greens to enter Parliament without winning an electoral seat.
When questioned by Newshub, National leader Bill English stuck with his current metaphor of choice – a drag race – saying despite the poll, he believed Labour and National were “level pegging”.
“Those numbers are a bit higher than what we’re seeing…. What we see is a drag race between the two big parties,” he said.
“They are going to be choosing National because we can build on the strength that we have, not slow it all down.”
Labour leader Jacinda Ardern said both the Greens and Labour have ruled out an electoral deal to get the Greens over the line.
When asked whether she would rather miss out on power than send a signal for Labour voters to back a Green electoral candidate, Ms Ardern said there has been “real volatility” in the polls and she believed the Greens were polling at a different number.
“Both of us have [ruled out an electoral deal]. We are running our own campaigns locally, and we’re campaigning individually for party vote,” Ms Ardern told Newshub.
The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percent and was conducted from 6th to 11th September.
This story from the Herald archive was orignally published in June 2017.
Moko Sayviah Rangitoheriri died on August 10 2015 from injuries he received during prolonged abuse and torture. His case shocked, saddened and angered New Zealanders and led to marches in his name against child abuse. His killers were jailed for 17 years with a minimum non-parole period of nine years. Their appeal to have the length of the sentence reduced was rejected in March 2017. This is Moko’s story.
Moko Sayviah Rangitoheriri was killed by those who were meant to be looking after him.
This story contains detailed descriptions of the abuse Moko suffered which could be upsetting. Please take care.
He lay on a resuscitation table.
His eyes were so swollen that the nurse could not lift the lids to check his pupils.
His little body was cold – so cold that devices used for measuring body temperature would not take a reading.
He had bite marks on his face, his tummy was protruding unnaturally and he was covered from head to toe in bruises and abrasions.
The little boy was so badly brutalised that he did not survive. At 10pm on August 10 last year he was pronounced dead.
His name was Moko Rangitoheriri. He was 3 years old.
A post-mortem examination was carried out and established that the Tokoroa toddler died as a result of “multiple blunt force traumas”.
He had lacerations and hemorrhaging deep within his abdomen, historic bruising and damage to his bowel. Combined, that resulted in his bowel rupturing. Fecal matter leaked into Moko’s abdomen, causing septic shock.
His brain was swollen, he had blood clots under his scalp representing numerous injuries inflicted at different times in the lead up to his death.
There was evidence the toddler had been smothered.
His body was a veritable map of torture – Moko had human bite marks, contusions, abrasions, deep bruising, lacerations, patterned injuries on his face, chin, neck, ears, lower lip, gums, eyes, ribs, testes, skin, chest, tummy, shoulder, arms.
Moko was a little boy with a big smile and a lot of life left to live.
But that was taken away from him by David Haerewa and Tania Shailer who deliberately and systematically hurt, tortured and abused Moko. Then, when his little body could take no more, they left him to die.
The beginning of the end
Moko Sayviah Rangitoheriri was born in October 2012 to Nicola Dally-Paki and Jordan Rangitoheriri.
Ms Dally-Paki had a son and daughter before Moko came along. When her youngest boy was very little, her eldest became sick and needed to travel to Auckland for treatment at Starship Hospital.
She couldn’t have the younger kids with her at the hospital so Moko and his sister were left in the care of whanau.
The pair spent time in Hawke’s Bay and then moved in with their mum’s mate in Taupo – Tania Shailer. Ms Dally-Paki met Shailer, then a caregiver at Kohunga Reo, when she was 16.
After Moko died, his mother Nicola Dally-Paki revealed that her 7-year-old daughter had seen much of the abuse meted out to the toddler.
When Shailer took in Moko and his sister she had four kids of her own aged between 2 and 7 and was living with her partner David Haerewa.
A source told the Herald that Haerewa had been in and out of prison “most of his life” but in June 2015 he was “doing really well”.
Shailer was also in a good place, the source said. She’d had problems in the past and turned to a Maori women’s refuge to help her escape a violent life in 2013. They helped her move to Taupo and find a house.
The refuge continued to work with Shailer in 2015.
Social worker Trina Marama said Shailer enrolled Moko’s sister into one of her refuge classes in June 2015. The girl was always well dressed, with a homemade lunch.
Mrs Marama never met Moko but came under fire after his death when a media report implied she had been told by the little girl about the abuse her brother was suffering.
“There were no signs or alarming signs that Moko was being abused,” Mrs Marama told Maori TV’s Native Affairs programme.
Shailer was in regular contact with Ms Dally-Paki until two weeks before Moko’s death.
“Her phone was off and I couldn’t call to talk to him. Those are signs that I should’ve picked up on,” Ms Dally-Paki would later tell TV3’s Story.
Court documents outline what happened in the two months Moko lived with Shailer and Haerewa – the last two months of his life.
For some reason, they began to dislike the little boy and their “animosity” increased.
Haerewa would later tell police that he didn’t like Moko’s “ways” and he was angry that the 3-year-old took him and Shailer “for granted”.
A culture of violence against Moko evolved.
Shailer would punch, kick and slap Moko. On one occasion another child in the house saw her biting the toddler multiple times on his face and arms.
She bit him so hard that his skin would break and he would bleed.
Meanwhile, Haerewa got into a “routine” of picking on Moko. He kicked, slapped, threw and booted the little boy, and sometimes beat him with a jandal.
“He didn’t want Moko around him … didn’t like Moko in his presence and would constantly have him in time out,” the summary said.
Time out for Moko was being put in the bathroom for hours at a time, on his own.
It appears Haerewa abused Moko whenever he could. In a horrid twist, he is not the only child abuser in his family.
He is the uncle of Benny Haerewa, who killed 4-year-old James Whakaruru. James was systematically beaten for several years before the fatal attack in 1999.
Benny Haerewa was convicted of manslaughter and at sentencing it emerged that he had earlier served jail time for beating James when the youngster was just 2 years old.
The killing of Moko
It was around August 5 when the couple started to kill Moko. The abuse escalated to a point of no return.
Shailer stomped repeatedly on Moko’s tummy with “significant force”. Moko groaned, expelling bursts of air as the adult who was supposed to be caring for him brought her foot down – hard – again and again.
After the attack Moko lost control of his bowel.
Haerewa would later tell police that they made Moko sit on paper and plastic because he “kept sh**ting”.
At some point around this time Moko suffered a fatal head injury.
It has not been established who of Shailer and Haerewa dealt the blow but it caused swelling on Moko’s brain and, combined with earlier head injuries and the attack on his abdomen, left the boy with little chance of survival.
By August 6 it was clear little Moko was in trouble.
“As the week progressed he became increasingly unwell. He was defecating spontaneously frequently, unable to control his bowels,” the summary revealed.
His face began to bruise, consistent with a severe head injury, and he was vomiting.
Moko was left in his bedroom all day that Sunday. He begged for water and the first time Haerewa gave him some, but after that his pleas were ignored.
Haerewa kept abusing the boy, despite his obviously deteriorating health.
“In particular he kicked Moko in the lower back after he had defecated, then wiped the faeces in Moko’s face,” the court heard.
“He then washed Moko with such force that he removed scabs from his body. Moko was screaming in pain and Haerewa covered Moko’s mouth to silence him.”
While in the shower Moko fell, and was barely able to stand up.
Haerewa could see the boy was getting worse.
He dried Moko, put him in a nappy and “chucked” him back in his bedroom.
No one did anything to help the little boy.
His breathing was laboured. His tummy was starting to get hard from his undiagnosed internal injuries.
Still, no one did anything to help him.
Shailer left the house and took her own kids to school. She spent the rest of the morning at home with Haerewa and then left the house again just before midday to attend a course.
At 2.20pm she got a ride home with a mate and asked to stop at a pharmacy. There, she tried to buy an EpiPen – a device used for injecting a measured dose or doses of epinephrine.
Most often used for the treatment of anaphylaxis the pens are carried by severe allergy sufferers. Shailer was told that the pens were not stocked but one could be ordered. She declined, and went home.
In the car she told her mate that Moko had “fallen from the woodpile” the day before. He was “okay”, she said.
The friend told Shailer to get the little boy checked at Taupo Hospital in case he had a head injury and offered to drive them there.
Shailer said no.
Just before 3pm she was dropped off at home. She and Haerewa then decided to try and revive Moko.
Shailer gave the boy mouth-to-mouth while Haerewa picked their kids up from school.
At 3pm Shailer picked up the phone and called 111. Four days had now passed since she had stomped on the child.
Moko fell from a wood pile yesterday, she told the operator. He sustained “severe bruising”, but had been okay up until now, she said.
Moko was now “really cold, unconscious, not breathing properly” and his stomach was “really hard”.
Paramedics arrived minutes later to find little Moko lying face down in the hallway.
Shailer was kneeling by his feet.
The paramedic took one look at Moko, his injuries and near-dead condition, scooped the 3-year-old up from the floor and rushed him straight to the emergency department.
Hours later he was dead.
What Moko’s sister saw
After Moko died, his mother revealed that her 7-year-old daughter had seen much of the abuse meted out to the toddler.
“She told me Moko had been locked in the bathroom for two weeks,” Ms Dally-Paki told Story.
“She’d try and stay home from school to try and feed my son because they were starving him.”
The 7-year-old, who cannot be named for legal reasons, told Ms Dally-Paki that she had begged Shailer and Haerewa to stop abusing her baby brother.
“She said he was locked in the bathroom for two weeks, and that she tried to use toilet paper to wipe his bleeding eyes.
“She tried everything to save him. She was told to tell the police that she had hurt Moko.”
Ms Dally-Paki’s daughter was not spared from the attacks.
“She said [Shailer] used to punch [her] in the face when she’d smile, and drag her by the hair to get to school.”
“They brainwashed her, they psychologically screwed her, and made her partake in the violence.”
The Herald contacted Ms Dally-Paki and Mr Rangitoheriri for comment ahead of the sentencing of their son’s killers. Neither responded.
Police issued a statement on behalf of the family, who sought privacy during a “very difficult time”.
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