Labour appears to be in full “reverse ferret” mode over immigration.
Stacey Kirk from Fairfax explains:
They stood on an immigration crackdown, but reality hit first.
If voters were lulled into thinking their new Government would make ardent strides to turn around Johnny Foreigner en masse at the border, the rhetoric of the past week might be a sharp wake-up call.
Annual migration fell to a 10-month low of 70,694 in the year to October, down from a peak of 72,402 in the year to July, according to the latest Statistics NZ update.
Economists have forecast the drop to accelerate to varying levels, while the Government’s synchronised backdown from a key election policy to reduce migration by 20,000 to 30,000 has been swift.
Immigration is a tightrope, stretched over a churning lagoon of gnashing jaws with big teeth. Walking it can be an art form: let your weight fall too far either side and you’re in trouble.
It’s no surprise to see Labour winding down its messaging on immigration. It may even be a relief to the regions and business, as well as to the party itself.
On one hand, it’s an assurance the Government is prepared to forgo populism for pragmatism, while the positioning also sits more naturally with Labour’s core principles.
Importantly, if immigration numbers began to fall for reasons outside the Government’s control, then a Government espousing a tightening of the tap would be taking that trend and making it worse.
And it’s clearly aware of the stakes. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, Immigration Minister Iain Lees-Galloway and Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters were all singing from the same song sheet the past week, saying there will be a reduction in immigration, “but we’re not fixating on the numbers”.
Because if it appears to be tightening the screws, while they’re tightening anyway, the Government risks choking the supply of workers businesses say they need and regional New Zealand will fare worst.
In Timaru, factory expansions are crying out for more workers – two major fisheries and a Fonterra mozzarella plant have faced months-long staff shortages, unable to fill hundreds of positions.
Labour originally promised a huge reduction, down to about 20,000 immigrants. They’ve been walking that back ever since.
Laobur’s policies never got much scrutiny during the election with a tame Media party basking in the glow of the Jacinda Effect.
Those chickens are now coming home to roost.